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jgale | 
18 December 2009 at 08:47 | 338 views
This is my last Western Gazette column before Christmas. May I therefore wish all readers a very Happy Christmas, and all the very best for 2010.
Whatever you are doing over Christmas, and wherever you are going to be, I hope that you will be able to get some rest, relaxation, and seasonal pleasures!
I always feel that the Christmas Season has truly started for me when I attend the marvellous candle-lit Festival of Lessons and Carols at the Minster, in Ilminster.
The Carol Service was at 6pm on the evening of 13th December, and was again led by Revd Alastair Wallace, who is always warm and welcoming, and who entertained adults and children alike with his talk and his unexpected demonstration of how to make a cake! (There was, of course, a more thought-provoking rationale for this culinary venture).
Alastair is clearly a man who is sensitive to the needs of his congregation, because he promised that the Service and mince pies would all be completed in time to allow avid fans of the “X Factor” to be back home to see the final!
The Service is a lovely start to the Christmas Season, with the wonderful Minster choir complemented by the show-stealing school choir of Greenfylde School, led as ever by the marvellous John Jeffrey.
If only the same Christmas cheer had been able to be on display in Westminster last week, but we had instead the Chancellor, Alastair Darling, auditioning for the role of scrooge.
Mr. Darling presented the Pre-Budget Report with all the dash of a provincial bank-manager with a serious hangover. His officials – who had clearly worked hard to breathe some life into his speech – watched aghast from the Commons advisers’ box as he flunked every opportunity to liven the occasion up. Mr. Darling could make a trumpet sound like a tin whistle, and could so strangle the greatest works of English literature that they would sound as thrilling as the menu at a motorway service station on the M1.
As it was, the Chancellor had good reason to be low key, and many reasons to be scrooge like. He told MPs that the Government is expecting to have a £178,000,000,000 hole in its finances this year – spending £178bn more than it will collect in tax. This enormous amount is about 13% of our total annual output – more than the amount which drove Harold Wilson into the arms of the International Monetary Fund in the 1970s.
As a consequence of this huge deficit, the emergency tax measures are having to be speedily unwound – VAT will go back up to 17.5% in January. And public sector wages will be capped at 1% from 2011 through to 2013, when inflation is likely to be up above this level. The budgets of many departments will be slashed to make ends meet.
Alastair Darling also announced a hike in national insurance contributions – the “tax on jobs”, which could both hit employment and hurt middle income earners. A special bonus tax on bankers sounds popular, but one suspects it will be easy for the well paid to avoid – as it only lasts until 6th April 2010!
The most bizarre aspect of the whole Pre-Budget Report was that all the extra money being raised in higher taxes is going to be allocated not to deficit reduction but to higher public spending totals in 2011-2013. This seems to be absolutely barmy when we are starting off with such a huge budget deficit.
But the truth was that this budget was framed more to create political “dividing lines” than to address the big economic issues facing the country.
We are leaving behind a tough year – for the economy, in Afghanistan, and for Parliament. But there is no easy ride ahead.
Early in the New Year Sir Thomas Legg will complete his investigation into MPs claims going back to 2004. He has already written to me to confirm that all my claims are in order and that he is not asking me to pay any money back. But many MPs will be getting large bills for repayments.
If Parliament is to be ready to confront with confidence the challenges that 2010 will bring, it must swiftly restore the confidence of the country, and the self-confidence of MPs themselves, in our political system.
Happy Christmas to all readers,
Ever,
David.
jgale | 03 December 2009 at 18:07 | 347 views
Parliament has three more weeks of work to go before the Christmas recess, and the time is packed with consideration of the new “Bills” from the Queen’s Speech.
I will be leading for my Party on the new Education Bill, which is likely to have its Second Reading in a few weeks time. This Bill will need a good deal of parliamentary time, as it will cover a whole range of controversial issues including on home education, the primary school curriculum, a “licence to teach”, school improvement policies and the proceedings of family courts.
My fear is that the Government will seek to curtail the amount of time for Parliamentary scrutiny, because of the imminent General Election. A complex education bill of this type would normally take a good 4 or 5 months to go through both the House of Commons and House of Lords, with hours of debate in Committee – taking each proposal in the Bill “line by line”. But there is no way that the Government will be able to make the same amount of time available as this, and so Ministers will either have to try to force through the legislation, or they will have to accept that it may not make it through before Parliament is dissolved.
As well as all the legislation which the Government is trying to “ram” through the House, the two big issues which will pre-occupy Parliament over the next few weeks will be Afghanistan and the Economy.
Next week the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, will come to Parliament to present his “Pre-Budget Report”. This was an idea first introduced by Gordon Brown over 10 years ago, when he was Chancellor. The idea was to consult on ideas well in advance of decisions being made – with the final decisions being announced in the main Budget Statement in around March.
But – rather predictably – the “Pre-Budget Report” has actually become a “Mini-Budget”, and it is now less about consultation and more about giving the Government a first bite at the Budget apple.
Unfortunately for Alistair Darling, however, the cupboard is very bare! Indeed, the Chancellor is likely to have to confirm his forecast of a whacking deficit of some £175,000,000,000 (£175 bn) on the public finances.
Chancellors and Prime Ministers usually like to announce “giveaways” just before General Elections, without the “takeaways” usually following pretty swiftly after the Election. But on this occasion there isn’t the money for anything remotely resembling an election bribe, and so the only issue is whether Mr. Darling will start trying to slash the deficit now, or leave it until after next Spring’s election.
Given the shaky nature of our “economic recovery” it seems that Mr. Darling will not announce any more “bad news” for now, particularly as value added tax is already expected to go up by 2.5% (back to 17.5%) on 1st January. The Government will not want to hit consumers too hard before the recovery has even begun.
The increase in VAT is likely to combine with higher energy prices to push inflation up in early 2010. In 2009 prices have been falling (according to Government statistics), but these declines are likely to be reversed in 2010. With pay rises still at very low levels (or zero in some cases) this is also likely to put a squeeze on consumer spending.
The other big issue is Afghanistan. Reports this week suggest that many of our troops on the frontline are getting disillusioned by the lack of a clear strategy and the limitations on much needed resources.
Most coalition nations have been waiting for President Obama to give a clear need, and the resources to do the job. It is, indeed, unfair to expect our troops to put their lives on the line when the signals coming out of Washington and London have been so confused.
What we now need is a clear and well resourced strategy to defeat the terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and then an accelerated process of handover to the Afghan Government forces, with a clear exit strategy for the majority of the UK and coalition troops.
Best wishes,
David.